Bucks
Presidential Poll
Dear Friends,
Good morning. The presidential election year has begun in earnest. Every day, a new presidential poll seems to conflict with the opinions from the preceding day. I say opinions because polls reflect opinions for only that day’s sample. Because Americans are unsure about the candidates, our preferences change daily.
I’ve been taking my own presidential polls and the results are as fascinating as they are unpredictable. I ran them past Mighty Betsy’s book club, my book club, and my army buddies (from 40 years ago). Next week, I’ll sample my rowing club because the members are considerably younger.
On New
Year’s Eve, seven couples met for our annual celebration. We’ve gotten wiser
over the years and now set our clocks and watches ahead by one hour. When the
clock strikes midnight, it’s actually only
I asked my friends to identify the Democrat, Independent, and Republican whom they thought would appear on the November ballot. As a follow up question, I asked them to select the candidate they’d vote for if the election were held today.
I included an independent option among the choices because I think that Michael Bloomberg, the New York City Mayor, will run as an independent.
Ten days ago, the Washington Post ran a story with this lead: “Michael Bloomberg, a potential independent candidate for president, has scheduled a meeting with a dozen leading Democrats and Republicans,” the Post began (Dec. 30). “They are expected to join him in challenging the major-party contenders to spell out their plans for forming a “government of national unity” to end the gridlock in Washington.” Those names were impressive and included former governors, congressmen, and senators.
But I stray.
Among the Democrats, I listed Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barrack Obama, Bill Richardson, and “other.” I listed Republicans: Rudolph Guiliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, and Mitt Romney.
Here’s how my friends voted. On the Democratic ballot in November, nine circled Clinton; Edwards, two; and one each for Biden and Obama. On the Republican ballot, seven chose McCain on the Republican ballot; four for Romney and only one for Guiliani. Independent Bloomberg had one vote.
But when asked to choose the candidate they’d vote for if the election were held today, look at how the results changed dramatically. Bloomberg and Clinton received three votes; Obama and McCain, two votes; Edwards, Guiliani, and Romney one vote each. Note, Clinton and Bloomberg were tied with McCain and Obama just behind them. One fog head facetiously wrote in Adlai Stevenson!
Personally, I like either Bloomberg or Obama. I tried to influence my pals by telling them that Obama has more experience than Abraham Lincoln did when Lincoln ran for the presidency. Before his election in 1860, Lincoln was a legislative lightweight. He’d served several terms in the Illinois legislature and only one term in the congress. Lincoln had not been a Governor or U. S. Senator. Today, historians choose Lincoln as among the very top presidents.
But, my friends were obviously not impressed.
In this unscientific sample, the fourteen of us ranged from age 65 to 80. Most were registered Republicans although they don’t always vote a straight GOP ballot.
I wondered why Clinton received only three votes? Is it true that among women voters, a national poll reported that Clinton’s appeal diminishes as women’s education and incomes rise? That is to say, if a woman possesses graduate degrees and has economic firepower, the less likely she’ll vote for Hillary.
How about that!
My book club has nine members and the results were similar. When we predicted who would appear on the November ballot, Clinton and Obama each received four votes; Biden, one. Among the Republicans, McCain and Romney received three votes; Guiliani and “other” got one.
But when asked to name the candidate we’d vote for, look at the change: the poll question was different because we could choose a Democrat and a Republican. Among the Democrats, Biden received five votes; Obama, three; and Richardson one. McCain garnered four votes; Huckabee, one and “other” two. Our book club wasn’t impressed with Clinton, Edwards, Guiliani and Romney.
My book club’s demographics are: all men, white, age 70 to 85, mostly registered Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs.
I’m circulating the same poll among Mighty Betsy’s book club members. You’ll get the results from my youthful boat club members shortly. My guess is that the results will be similar, regardless of age. The names, which my friends think will appear on the November ballot, will vary from their personal choice for president.
Finally, will former Congressman Michael Fitzpatrick oppose Congressman Patrick Murphy this year? Stay tuned.
Sincerely,
Charles Meredith