Bucks
Presidential Poll Ed Howard Class - Part One
Dear Friends,
Good morning. Last week, I walked into former State Senator Ed Howard’s class at Delaware Valley College expecting to poll the members on their presidential preferences. His class numbers about 40 and are filled with senior citizens, most of whom are registered Republican, but don’t always vote that way.
What makes them particularly interesting to me is that they are opinion makers. It’s people like they [are] who influence their friends and acquaintances on Election Day.
In the 1970’s and ‘80’s, Ed Howard was a very successful and independent Republican who gave the GOP fits. Party leaders in Harrisburg and Doylestown despised Ed because he wouldn’t be a lap dog for them.
It was he that encouraged Jim Greenwood to run for the state legislature, then state senate, and finally Congress…always winning in spite of only lukewarm support from the Republican County Committee.
Ed’s been running the class at Del Val for three years and occasionally invites me to stir things up. I always tell the class that the value which I add is equated to the fee I receive…zero. Ed calls his class, “Local Government, the growing monster in your back yard.” (Or, “Monster Class” for short.) Some of Ed’s friends call it “Howard, the Monster.” He believes that residents don’t pay enough attention to local government and its high cost. Ed’s right.
Fortunately for the class, there was a mix up. State Representative Marguerite Quinn (R-143) was leading the discussion because I’d shown up one week early. Besides, she’s more interesting.
Ms. Quinn’s legislative district is a real Hodge-podge. It starts with Doylestown and Doylestown Township, dips into a part of Buckingham Township, then heads northeast through Plumstead, Bedminster, Tinicum, Bridgeton, Nockamixon, Durham and Riegelsville. You need physical stamina and the skills of a pathfinder to tackle her district’s perplexity and geography.
But I did have a few moments to distribute my presidential poll and asked the members to fill it out (anonymously, of course). Bill Lloyd, a classmate, will tabulate the results and we’ll talk about them next week.
Turning to the attractive Ms. Quinn, I saluted and said, “You’re on your own.” On that note, I fled.
Tomorrow (February 21), I return to Ed’s class to discuss the results of my presidential poll. As you’d agree, this year’s election has created unusually high interest nationwide. Everywhere I turn, people in southeast Pennsylvania tune into the talk shows on TV and radio…and pour over newspapers too.
In the 35 primary and caucuses, record turnouts have been the norm…especially with younger voters. Barack Obama has won 24 states versus Hillary Clinton’s 11. He’s won 10 straight state primaries and has a lead in the delegate count as well. Prior to the early February Iowa Caucus, pollsters believed that a coronation of Ms. Clinton was a foregone conclusion.
Look at Obama’s winnings. When the margin of victory is 60 percent, he’s won 13 states to Clinton’s one; when the margin was 70 percent, Obama won five states to Clinton’s one. And he won one election with an 80 percent edge.
At the moment, Clinton looks like a goner…unless she wins in Ohio and Texas next week. And if she does [win Ohio and Texas], Pennsylvania’s April primary holds the key to the Democratic nomination. Yes, it will take the super delegates to decide the Democratic nomination in August because neither Obama nor Clinton will have enough primary victories to take either of them over the top. But I believe that the super delegates will mirror their states’ primary results. If the super delegates don’t vote as their states did, their action would shatter public opinion and make an actual horse race out of the November election.
Why would the Democrats risk that?
John McCain is the presumed Republican nominee. He will have to run on the Bush record, which is riddled with enormous mistakes…a war in Iraq which should never have started; an occupation plan that had too few troops on the ground to secure the peace; an enlarged U. S. government with a bigger debt than Bill Clinton left; appointments to the U. S. Supreme Court designed to invade our privacy…and to add insult to injury, a recession.
The Democrats are too smart for that. This year, my Republican party…the party of Abraham Lincoln…is doomed. And we deserve it.
Next week, I’ll report if Ed Howard’s class thinks that Obama will pick Clinton as a running mate (or visa versa). Does the class think that McCain will choose Mike Huckabee, or former Governor Tom Ridge, or Secretary of State Condoleesa Rice as VP?
Will Obama or Clinton announce their cabinet members prior to the November election? Will New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg run as an independent…be in a Clinton or Obama cabinet…or wait to run against New York Governor Elliot Spitzer in a few years?
Closer to home, will Ed’s class vote for freshman congressman Patrick Murphy or will they turn to Thomas Manion, a retired Marine Colonel who lost his son in Iraq?
Stay tuned.
Sincerely,
Charles Meredith