Bucks
Ed Howard Presidential Poll Discussion
Dear Friends,
Good morning. We’re about four weeks from the crucial Pennsylvania primary. I thought about former State Senator Ed Howard’s class at Delaware Valley College and the presidential poll we conducted on February 28. At the time, the Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Texas primaries were just around the corner.
A McCain nomination was a foregone conclusion but the Democratic primary captured the attention of Howard’s class…just as it has the rest of America. Before I get to that poll, don’t you find it interesting that the Texas results are still uncertain? Because Texas conducts a typical primary but also adds a caucus, where voters can vote twice (the so called "Texas two-step primary"), my bet is that Texas will end up in the Barack Obama column.
We'll see.
But I’ve been off the mark before. As Mighty Betsy says, “Charlie’s often wrong but never in doubt!” For example, I forecasted that Governor Rendell would be the compromise presidential candidate if Hillary Clinton and Obama were deadlocked at the Democratic convention. I also predicted that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg would run as an Independent. I was wrong.
Twenty-five attended Ed’s class when I conducted my poll. Most were Central Bucks residents and age 65, plus. All were white and the gender was pretty evenly split. There were considerably more registered Republican voters than Democrats but, like the four southeast Pennsylvania counties, they seldom vote that way.
The three critical questions were: (1) In the Democratic Pennsylvania primary, will you vote for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama? (2) In the November election, will you vote for McCain or the winner of the Democratic nomination? And (3), will you vote for Congressman Patrick Murphy or his Republican challenger, Thomas Manion?
If Ed Howard’s class is a precursor for the April primary and the November election, the GOP will take a thumping…rather like the 1964 election, which Lyndon Johnson won over Barry Goldwater who was judged to be too conservative. Barry Goldwater thought gays should be able to serve in the military and was of the pro-choice persuasion. Other than his conservative tax policies, Goldwater would be judged left of center today.
Twenty of the class will cast their votes for Obama in the Pennsylvania primary, compared to five for Hillary. To do so these Republicans will have to reregister as Democrats because the Pennsylvania primary prohibits voting in a different primary from your registration.
In November, they’ll be voting for the Democrat who wins the nomination in August. Like the rest of America, the class is opposed to the war and is passionately anti George W. Bush.
According to the class, which supported him 17 to 5, Congressman Patrick Murphy should breeze to victory. Will the fact that Manion’s son lost his life in Iraq encourage a sympathy vote, I asked in a follow up question? The class didn’t think so.
I asked them if they think that the super delegates will choose the Democratic nominee. I agreed with their answer: 14 said yes; 5, no; and 3 weren’t certain. By a margin of 22 to 1, the class didn’t think that neither Clinton nor Obama would choose the loser as her/his Vice Presidential running mate.
I disagreed with the class for historical reasons. Who would have thought that John Kennedy would have chosen Lyndon Johnson as his running mate in 1960…or Ronald Reagan picking George H. W. Bush in 1980?
Do you think that John McCain will select Mike Huckabee or former Governor Tom Ridge or Secretary of State Condoleesa Rice as his running mate, I asked? The “No’s” won, hands down.
I couldn’t persuade the class that Clinton, Obama, and McCain will give strong hints about their Cabinet preferences...or their U.S. Supreme Court nominations should the opportunity arise.
Patrick Murphy is campaigning for Obama. A super delegate, Murphy will be a major player if the Democratic convention is deadlocked. If Bucks County voters choose Obama in the April 22 primary but Clinton wins Pennsylvania, would the class be angry with Murphy if he doesn’t support Clinton at the convention, I asked?
No, they wouldn’t, the class replied.
Finally, a very different topic surfaced in the class. Corinne Cody is active with the Bucks County League of Women Voters. She worries that the new Bucks’ electronic voting machines don’t have a paper trail. Why are the Republican Commissioners so opposed to a paper trail, she wonders?
I’ll ask Commissioners Jim Cawley and Charley Martin.
Stay tuned.
Sincerely,
Charles Meredith