Bucks
Ed Howard Class Presidential Survey
Dear Friends,
Good morning. Whenever former State Senator Ed Howard asks me to address his weekly class at Delaware Valley College, I say yes. He calls it, “Local government, the growing monster in your back yard, or ‘Monster Class’ for short.” The 30 or so who attend are older…mostly in their 60’s and 70’s, and live in middle Bucks County. They are well versed in county, state and national affairs and active in their communities. The class is about 60 percent female and all are white.
I’ve found that this group correctly predicts how Bucks County will vote, regardless whether it’s a presidential, state or county election. And because the results in the four Philadelphia suburban counties mirror Pennsylvania’s returns, the opinions of this class provide a window to the future. All pollsters predict that Pennsylvania is one of three states that will decide whether John McCain or Barack Obama will be the next president. You can understand why pollsters watch Bucks County election returns.
“If the presidential election were held today, would you vote for McCain or Obama,” I asked just as the class adjourned?
Before I give their answer, let me first set the stage. I wanted to determine whether the class thinking was conservative or liberal. To encourage confidentiality, I asked them to close their eyes and raise their hands as they responded to about 30 questions.
Most were registered Republican but neither Republican or Democrat was 100 percent loyal to her/his party. The vast majority favors embryonic stem cell research financed by the federal government. The class supports same sex unions but opposes calling them marriages.
By large numbers, the class supports the United Nations. Likewise, it believes there should be an independent Palestinian state. It does not favor an announced timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Iraq.
Turning to my questions about the national scene, every member of the class is invested in the stock market and angry about the economy. I sensed that they hold the Bush administration and Republicans more responsible. The GOP is known as the party of deregulation. And up to last Friday, so was John McCain.
The class supports exploring all sources for energy including nuclear power and off shore drilling. A majority favors capital punishment; opposes the decriminalization of the use of marijuana; backs affirmative action; and supports universal health care, financed similar to social security. They’re against public school vouchers. The vast majority supports term limits for all elected officials.
Time ran out before I could ask them if they thought that creationism should be taught in public schools and whether prostitution should be legalized. Those subjects will have to wait for another day.
I was unable to definitively pose yes or no questions about gun control or the solution to illegal immigration. I got bogged down on the specific wording. You faithful readers could help me phrase those questions better. Please send me an email.
Finally, here are the class thoughts about the McCain/ Obama election.
Prior to the revelation that the economy was on the verge of collapse (September 24), the presidential polls were razor thin. “Wouldn’t you think that an unpopular President, an unpopular war, a troubled economy, and predictions that more Democratic congressmen will be going to Washington…would show stronger polling results for Obama,” I asked?
They agreed but didn’t hazard a guess why the polls were so close.
Ironically, the very day of the class meeting (Sept. 25), the Washington Post- A.B.C. news poll claimed that Obama had increased his lead over McCain by 52 to 43 percent. That significant change could have been influenced by the staggering, financial woes…contrasted by McCain’s recent claims that the economy was in sound shape.
The class was not impressed by McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate. They don’t believe that she’ll help his bid for the presidency. And speaking of Sarah Palin, several weeks ago, I predicted that McCain would drop her from the ticket and replace her with another. You will remember that’s exactly what Presidential candidate George McGovern did to his running mate, Tom Eagleton, in 1972.
Will racial prejudice determine who wins in November, I asked? The class said “no” but thought that race may be an influence. They agreed that religion could be a mask for race and nodded their heads affirmatively when I read parts of this New York Times column. “The Pew Research Center found that only half of Americans correctly know that Mr. Obama is a Christian,” Nicholas Kristof wrote (Sept.21). “Meanwhile, 13 percent of registered voters say that Obama is a Muslim.”
So, whom will the class vote for if the election were held today? Significantly more hands rose for Obama.
They also believe that Obama is better equipped to wage war on terror.
At the beginning of the class, I talked about the U.S. Supreme Court. Three of the justices are quite old and may retire in the next four years. All are associated with liberal points of views. I read these last two sentences from “The Nine,” Jeffrey Toobin’s fascinating book about the Supreme Court.
“But the Court is a product of a democracy and represents, with chilling precision, the best and worst of the people,” Toobin concluded. “We can expect nothing more, and nothing less, than the Court we deserve.”
“Do you want McCain or Obama to nominate replacements for those justices,” I asked? Again, the class answered with their eyes shut. “Obama,” they said.
Friends, stay tuned.
Sincerely,
Charles Meredith