Bucks
Paul Clymer
Dear Friends,
Good
morning. Before I get to State Representative Paul Clymer’s decision to retire
after 30 years in the legislature and former congressman and Bucks Commissioner
“Martha Coakley, the Democratic state attorney general, was widely expected to win, given her party’s 3-to-1 advantage among voters,” the New York Times reported (Jan. 17). “But Republican Scott Brown tapped into public qualms about the health care bill and received a flood of out-of-state financial support. Loss of the seat denies Democrats the 60th vote they need to end filibusters.”
What caught my eye was the reminder that to pass any federal legislation, you need 60 votes in the U.S. Senate for passage…not just a simple majority, or 51 votes. Thomas Geoghegan is a lawyer and author of “See You in Court: How the Right Made America a Lawsuit Nation.”
He wrote an op-ed piece in the New York Times (Jan. 11) stating that super majorities are unconstitutional. “The Constitution explicitly requires super majorities only in a few special cases: ratifying treaties and constitutional amendments, overriding presidential vetoes, expelling members and for impeachment,” Geoghegan began.
“Article 1 expressly says that the vice president, as the presiding officer of the Senate, should cast the deciding vote when senators are equally divided,” he continued. “The procedural filibuster does an end run around this constitutional requirement.”
Just as bad, Senate rules…not the Constitution…permit a senator to block a presidential nomination. That’s why a single senator can stop any judicial appointment and administration hiring without a hearing.
One last thought about the Scott Brown victory. America is angry. Used to instant gratification, we are an impatient nation. We expected President Obama to sweep the legislative floor clean of partisan bickering. That hasn’t happened…quite the opposite. Obama is paying the price for not leading his fellow Democrats in the congress. Allowing the health care legislation to drift for a year, could stymie his chances for reelection in 2012. Obama needed to take off his gloves and fight for his ideas.
Michael Walsh, a Quakertown area resident who’d like to succeed Representative Clymer, had an interesting take on the Massachusetts surprise. “Scott Brown ran a populist campaign whereas Martha Coakley ran an elitist campaign,” Walsh told me. “This year, which ever party resembles a libertarian point of view will become the majority party [in the congress].”
The lack of a forceful president could cost Congressman Patrick Murphy his job this year. Why are ten Republicans brewing for a May 15th primary fight? Because they smell blood in the water.
When was the last time that you saw a lower Bucks County village make the first page of the New York Times? In the January 15th issue, the dateline was Holland (PA.) and the story was the Tea Party activists who are trying to take over the Republican establishment, ground up.
Estimates of the standing-room-crowd ranged from 750 to 1,200. It drew nine Republican candidates who can’t wait to tackle Congressman Murphy in the fall. Fitzpatrick was not present because he’d not yet announced his candidacy. He has in the meantime.
Incidentally,
I think that the vast majority of the Tea Party activists are older white
people. You don’t see many African American and Latino faces in news photos of
the crowd. A picture on page one of the
The way I see it, Murphy will survive the Tea Party enthusiasts if the Obama administration can generate positive movement in the unemployment numbers and reduce taxes. The Republican candidate with the highest name recognition is Fitzpatrick. But his stance on a woman’s right to choose is out of step with the typical Bucks voter who believes that governments should stay out of a woman’s decision to carry a fetus to term [or not]. There are organizations that will work hard to oppose a Fitzpatrick campaign. Will he change his position to make his candidacy more palatable to these groups?
My friend, Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin and Marshall College Poll, has it right. He said that the November election would be about Obama. “It’s not about the personalities of the candidates,” Madonna said. “This is about Obama’s stimulus, government control, health care, national security, and Afghanistan. Is Patrick Murphy worth another term in that context,” Madonna asked?
I predict that Fitzpatrick will encourage the Bucks Republican Committee Chairman, Harry Fawkes, to refrain from endorsing any of the ten candidates. Fitzpatrick has the obvious advantage of name recognition over the other nine. And if the GOP declares an open primary, the Tea Party activists will be tickled pink.
The problem for conservatives is that it’s easier to win a primary with a right-winger than it is to get her/him elected in the November election. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum is a case in point.
Turning to Paul Clymer, his decision to retire is not good news for Chairman Fawkes. Clymer has become so popular that the Democratic Party has been unable to challenge him seriously. If Clymer sticks to his guns, however, all bets are off.
The 145th district is no longer a shoe-in for any Republican, just as Massachusetts was for any Democrat. When Clymer first ran, 30 years ago, his Democratic opponent was Blake Eisenhardt who came within inches of winning.
Since Clymer’s announcement, the rumor mill has five Republicans and two Democrats thinking about throwing their hats in the ring.
My prediction is that Chairman Fawkes will persuade Clymer to change his mind. On the other hand, if Clymer insists on quitting, the primary in the 145th legislative district promises to be bloody. Assuming a hands-off stance is not Fawkes’ style. I’ll be astounded if Fawkes lets the chips fall where they may. Stay tuned.
Sincerely,
Charles Meredith