Bucks County HeraldNovember 24, 2010

Fitzpatrick New Congress

 

Dear Friends,

            I thought about Michael Fitzpatrick as I recently read several stories in the New York Times and the Philadelphia Inquirer. After defeating Patrick Murphy by more than 17,000 votes on November 2, a substantial victory, the congressman elect begins his return to Washington in January.

            Readers will remember that Murphy edged Fitzpatrick by just 1,700 votes four years ago. In the 2006 midterm election, Murphy rode the wave of anger and discontent with President George W. Bush’s administration and narrowly beat Fitzpatrick. Now, the tables have turned.

            Here’s an interesting question. How many terms will Fitzpatrick serve…one or multiple terms? It depends.

            The Eighth Congressional District is a volatile landscape. I think of it as a place where voters are fiscally conservative but liberal on societal problems and opportunities. Politicians have to read the tea leaves very carefully.

            It turned out that 2010 was not the year for Democrats to run…especially for incumbent Democrats closely associated with President Obama. America is angry and impatient…and the Eighth District is no different.

            Patrick Murphy was the point man for Obama’s attempt to overturn the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” legislation of 1993. The present House of Representatives voted to overturn the law but it’s stalled in the U.S. Senate. Assuming that the Senate won’t allow its members to vote on the proposal, the next congress will start all over again. Will Michael Fitzpatrick vote to overturn “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” when he takes Murphy’s place?

            If the Republican members attempt to overturn the contentious Health Care law, how will Fitzpatrick vote? If the question of earmarks (which I call pork) surfaces, will Fitzpatrick vote to abandon the practice? Most elected representatives at both the federal and state level love pork. It’s bringing the bacon home to the local district.

Will Fitzpatrick vote to increase the retirement age for social security recipients?

            How he answers those questions and the voters’ reaction to them will determine whether Fitzpatrick will face a serious challenger in 2012, the year President Obama presumably seeks reelection.

            Personally, I think it would be great fun if Sarah Palin were the Republican standard bearer in 2012. I’m not in her fan club but she sure brings out visceral passions from supporters and opponents alike. For example, did you see the story of one unhappy viewer who was so upset with Bristol Palin’s performance on “Dancing with the Stars,” that he shot his television set with a shotgun? Ah, what enthusiasm!

            But I stray.

            Michael Fitzpatrick has left the campaign trail for the governing trail. Think about the minefield he’s about to enter. Governance has become an endless “gotcha” contest in Washington. The name of the game is to bring down the opponent’s standard-bearer.

            Take what happened in the U.S. Senate last week when one Senator…not a majority of Senators, mind you…decided to not allow a vote on Obama’s treaty with Russia. Senate rules permit the minority to stop legislation unless 60 percent of the Senate votes to end a filibuster. Does Republican Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona oppose the nuclear arms reduction treaty because it’s bad for America…or does Kyl simply wish to bring Obama down?

            Fortunately, in the House of Representatives, a single congressman can’t obstruct on his own. But most congressmen follow their caucus chairman’s lead. Will Fitzpatrick be an independent voice or follow the demands of Republican Jon Boehner, the next Speaker of the House?

            Finally, I thought about Fitzpatrick when I read the New York Times “Week in Review” last Sunday (Nov. 14). The three-page article was aimed at engaging readers with the question of either cutting spending or raising taxes to trim the deficit. It’s expected to be in the trillions and cripple America if congress does nothing about it.

            The NYT chart made it easy for readers to cut $1.345 trillion from the 2030 budget by reducing spending or increasing taxes or a combination of both. Why year 2030? “That’s when baby boomers start to weigh heavily on the budget,” the NYT explained, “and it’s the latest year for which experts have estimated costs for budget items.”

            The NYT identified $1.8 trillion in spending cut options and $1.9 trillion in tax revenue options. I called Fitzpatrick last week to ask how he’d use the NYT chart to attack the deficit? He hasn’t returned my call but I’m sure that he will…after all, he’s preparing to govern and is a busy fellow.

            The spending cut options were divided into these categories: domestic programs and foreign aid (8 suggestions); military (7 suggestions); Health Care (3 suggestions); Social Security (5 suggestions).

            The tax revenue options were: estate tax (3 suggestions); investment taxes (2 suggestions); income and employer taxes (5 suggestions); tax reform (3 suggestions) and three other new taxes such as: a rising tax on carbon emissions; a tax on banks (weighted by size and risk of holdings); and a 5 percent national sales tax, (exempting education, charity and housing).

            I encourage you readers to take the NYT chart and plot how you would cut $1.345 trillion? That’s the kind of exercise that Fitzpatrick will be considering. The Tea Party and conservative voters expect him to vote for cuts in taxes and spending. He should outline the specifics…how would he do it?

            Obviously, Fitzpatrick can’t change Washington’s taxing and spending policies by himself. But voters need to know how he wants to govern.

            The moral of this tale is that voters are angry and impatient today. Will they remain that way in 2012? Has the Eighth Congressional District become a revolving door? Stay tuned.

Sincerely,

Charles Meredith