Free Press – November 23, 2006

Smerconish Poll and November 2006 Election

Dear Friends,

When it comes to predicating state and national elections, Bucks County is a bell weather region. Bucks voters love to split their ballots. In the 2000 and 2004 Presidential, Bucks voted for Democratic candidates (Gore and Kerry) in big numbers but overwhelmingly returned Republican Congressman Jim Greenwood in 2000 and elected County Commissioner Mike Fitzpatrick in 2004.

Terry Madonna, the famous pollster who was at the Quakertown Community Education Foundation’s Neamand lecture, claims that a presidential candidate can’t win without the suburbs…every suburb…Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia…you get the picture. We certainly saw that in the Pennsylvania race for governor. Ed Rendell won Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, Delaware and Lehigh Counties with better than a 60 percent margin. Those five counties, plus Philadelphia is the tail, which wags the dog in Pennsylvania.

Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick narrowly lost his seat. He actually won in Bucks but lost significantly in Montgomery and Philadelphia, which comprises the balance of the eighth congressional district. I think that Fitzpatrick didn’t have the right team working for him in Montco and the city.

Most believe that former congressman Jim Greenwood would have won, had he not decided to retire early. Why would Greenwood have fared better than Fitzpatrick?

Fitzpatrick was a very popular county commissioner and served his constituents faithfully and well for 10 years. Fitzpatrick is articulate and works extremely hard when on the campaign trail. So, why did he lose?

I believe that Fitzpatrick’s stance on abortion and federal funding for embryonic stem cell research cost him the election. Like President Bush and Senator Rick Santorum, Fitzpatrick opposes both.

One week before the election, the Morning Call and Muhlenberg College published a revealing poll (Oct. 31). They asked likely Bucks County voters what they thought about Fitzpatrick, Santorum, the war in Iraq, embryonic stem cell research and abortion. Only 31 percent said that Fitzpatrick was not doing a good job. No surprise, just 39 percent thought Santorum deserved reelection.

But look at the last three questions. Fifty eight percent of the likely voters thought that the war with Iraq was not worth fighting. And how did embryonic stem cell and abortion fare? The numbers are telling: 70 percent of Bucks voters favored embryonic stem cell research and 52 percent supported a woman’s right to an abortion.

As a county commissioner, Fitzpatrick’s views on abortion and embryonic stem cell research did not adversely affect his popularity. Although he won three terms by significant numbers, those topics held critical importance at the national scene.

Last week, conservative radio talk show host Michael Smerconish gave his views about his favorite 15 topics. It ran in the Philadelphia Daily News (Nov. 9). My November 16^th column listed them. Smerconish told his audience on November 13 that more than 3,000 had responded to his column.

I don’t think that the typical Southeast Pennsylvania listener was surprised by the results. They demonstrated that the vast majority is not in sync with President Bush or Senator Santorum.

Harry Fawkes, the Chairman of the Bucks County Republican Party, faces unsettling times. If Fitzpatrick wants a rematch, will the Bucks machine give him another chance? I would bet that Fawkes will stick with Fitzpatrick. When Greenwood announced that he was leaving congress, he proposed that State Senator Joe Conti should take his place. Conti was Pro choice and a supporter of embryonic stem cell research. But Fawkes turned thumbs down on that suggestion.

What happens if Fitzpatrick won’t run again?

A better question might be: will Fawkes see the light? After the 2008 presidential, the GOP may slink into hibernation. Since Ronald Reagan, no Republican presidential candidate wins nomination without support from the far-right. But any far-right Republican running for the presidency will take a thumping in 2008…in my opinion.

In case Fitzpatrick won’t take another crack at congress, Fawkes should start searching for an alternative. The most vulnerable time for any congressman is when he faces his first reelection campaign. Fitzpatrick himself demonstrated that truism.

I think that Bucks Commissioner Jim Cawley might be Fawkes’ best bet…but only if Cawley begins a subtle campaign favoring (1) embryonic stem cell research and (2) a woman’s right to choose.

If I were Cawley, I’d start paying attention to the people at Bucks County Planned Parenthood. And I’d try to convince my fellow commissioners to give them county tax money for Planned Parenthood education. The organization worked hard for Patrick Murphy who heads to Washington in January.

Planned Parenthood has a well-oiled political action program. Fiercely independent, they are not afraid of either political party. I learned 40 years ago how effective this group is in a political fight. They are passionate about their cause and willing to go the extra mile for their candidates.

Last, if any Republican wants to be a long-term congressman, he or she should take a page out of Jim Greenwood’s playbook. If Fawkes won’t admit that the Greenwood style is best, Fawkes should look to Chuck McIlhinney and see how well he did in Bedminster Township.

Bedminster led the way in the 10^th State Senate race with 67 percent of the vote for McIlhinney. He narrowly defeated Democrat Chris Serpico by 51.4 to 48.6 percent. And Bedminster proved to be the key factor in the 143^rd District in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. There, Republican Marguerite Quinn won a plurality of votes against a Democrat and an independent.

McIlhinney and Quinn proved that if you’re a liberal on social issues, you can win in Bucks County even though voters can’t stand George W. and Santorum but swoon over Democrat Ed Rendell.

Sincerely,

Charles Meredith